Visions of the Future

This week's topic is The Future. Who knows? But we wonder and we try to prepare for what might happen. The best way to decide what is likely in the future is to look closely at the trends we're in.

Look at the huge empires of the world: America, the old British Empire, Russia, and the return of the Chinese empire. Are they likely to be more or less capable of guaranteeing prosperity and justice within their borders? Are their huge economies likely to bind huge territories together as energy becomes scarce and the demands of local groups grow louder? One expected outcome of the current difficulties experienced by these empires is REGIONALIZATION.

China has pulled together and fallen apart many times. And it may be the last empire to fall apart in the 21st century. Or not. Remember Lee Teng-hui's 1999 book in which he suggested seven autonomous regions of the Chinese world: Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, Northeastern China, Northern China and Southern China.

For Taiwan to keep sovereignty (and not be owned by China, America, Japan or International Capital) is a very hard task these days. It would mean having an economy run by Taiwanese people, for Taiwanese people (an end to globalization). It would mean defending the island not only against national armies (such as that of the PRC) but against thousands -- maybe hundreds of thousands -- of Asian refugees when times get tough and hungry people take to boats. It would also mean uniting the various ethnic groups in a common purpose: the prosperity, freedom and happiness of all the people who live here.

In America, the national government is failing in many ways. A huge yearly budget deficit increases our immense national debt each year, and it's a debt that will never be paid off. Taxpayer dollars are given to New York bankers, and the money that comes back to the local regions often fails to help out, because it's spent on wasteful projects. The bloated American military no longer defends America from anything real; instead it sucks money from the taxpayers and gives it to the arms manufacturers and other big contractors, while blowing up the homes of people around the world. At least these are some of the complaints made by Secessionists (people who want to secede -- break away from the larger country and form a smaller country).

To illustrate the depth of this movement, I here offer a list of links to existing secessionist groups in North America. Some of the ideas, such as New Hampshire independence, have only a handful of supporters. Others, such as the movments in Quebec, Puerto Rico and Hawaii (all of which identify with non-English languages), are very powerful voices in their regions.

Where I come from, usually called Oregon, many people consider themselves NOT primarily Oregonians or Americans, but Cascadians. The future Republic of Cascadia is said to be based on a common climate and lifestlye, a liberal outlook, respect for nature and a common relationship to a long, shared stretch of the Pacific coastline. Economic independence would be easy to handle, due to the abundance of natural resources, including good farmland.

Well, anyway, here's the list:

http://www.texasnationalist.com/ (Republic of Texas)
and
http://www.texasnationalist.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=66&Itemid=98

http://www.vermontrepublic.org/ Second Vermont Republic

http://www.republicofnh.org/ Republic of New Hampshire

http://novacadia.org/ Republic of Novacadia
(Nova Scotia - Prince Edward Island - New Brunswick - Maine - New Hampshire)

http://www.akip.org/ Alaska Independence Party

http://www.hawaii-nation.org/ Hawaii – Independent and Strong

http://zapatopi.net/cascadia.html
Republic of Cascadia (Oregon - Washington - British Columbia)

http://www.jeffersonstate.com/
State of Jefferson (Southern Oregon - Northern Calfornia)

http://www.bear-flag-party.8k.com/
Bear Flag Party (California Independence)

http://www.secessionist.us/Lakota/declarationofcontinuingindependence.pdf
Lakota Nation (Sioux Indians in North and South Dakota)

http://www.southernnationalcongress.org/manifesto.shtml#1
(The South is a nation.)

http://www.pq.org/
Party Quebecois (Quebec Sovereignty – French only)

http://www.separationalberta.com/ Separation Party of Alberta

http://www.independencia.net/ingles/welcome.html
(Partido Independentista Puertorriqueno -- Puerto Rico Independence)


MAPS

http://gacc.nifc.gov/eacc/logistics/all_risk/Homeland_Security_Regions_Map.png
FEMA Regions

http://www.cec.org/pubs_info_resources/publications/enviro_conserv/images/english/carte_ang.gif

Climate Regions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Nations_of_North_America
Nine Nations of North America

http://api.ning.com/files/VCwONzx2-jG0KBrAfrOppiD9ejB*LEin8fnDjm*T9U-odK4mGfEd3fYNWOIydD1rbaUYMxMTZf6dm9LpP6M1Qy90r-YpiENV/19NationsofNorthAmericamap.JPG
Nineteen Nations of North America

Population and Food

NOTE: WE WILL NOT HAVE CLASS TOMORROW, 11/12/09.
NEXT CLASS WILL BE ON 11/19.
WE WILL DISCUSS POPULATION AND FOOD.

Grain production has not been keeping up with the increase in population, and since the 1980s there has been a gradual decline in the grain per person, worldwide. Worldwide, there are over a billion people close to starvation today, and the population keeps increasing. How will we feed everyone?

Now, biofuel is using a large fraction of the grain harvest, reducing food availability and driving up the cost of grain and meat. Actually, most corn is used to feed cattle, to make beef. It takes 16 kilos of vegetable protein (mostly grain) to make one kilo of meat protein. Meat eating by rich countries means less grain for the people of poor countries. So one obvious way to increase the food supply is to decrease worldwide meat consumption. This is something individual people can do to help ease world hunger, and it saves them money, too, because meat is one of the most expensive items on any food budget.

We could talk about the impact of rising oil prices on the production (and cost) of petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides, on the cost of food distribution (you probably buy fruit flown from Chile, juice from South Africa and cookies from America), and on the cost of running farm machinery. As resources -- such as metals, wood (and thus paper) and oil (and therefore plastics, medicines, electricity and many other necessary things) -- become scarce and more expensive, poor people have less to spend on food, and their diets suffer as a result. The availability of fresh water for farm irrigation is shrinking rapidly, as glaciers melt, rainfall becomes irregular and pollution makes much of the world's water unusable.

These are not just problems for the poor of distant countries. Food scarcity was known by the grandparents of today's Taiwan workers, and it could come again. In fact, unemployment is already having an impact on the food budgets of many Taiwanese. And even if you eat well, how does it feel to know that you are competing for grain with the "bottom billion", who may starve if they cannot afford to buy food? These our our problems, too.

When we meet on 11/19, I hope everyone will have a short report on some topic related to population and food. Here are some links to help you with your research:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2009/09/10/2003453153
US, UK waste enough to feed the world’s poor

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2009/09/05/2003452799
Millions face starvation in East African drought

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006_data.htm#fig2
Two graphs on this page show increase in total grain production (to 2006) AND grain per person. Note that grain per person has declined since the 1980s. If you and your friends (like me and my friends) have continued to eat the same amount of grain as we did in the 1980s – or even more, that means the “bottom billion” are eating much less.

http://www.theecologist.org/pages/archive_detail.asp?content_id=834
Figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that Europe would need to convert more than 70 per cent of its total arable land to raise the proportion of biofuel currently used in road transport to a mere 10 per cent.

…As we consider whether to fill our bellies or our motorways it’s worth considering this: the grain needed to fill a typical SUV’s 25-gallon tank with bioethanol would feed one person for a year.

http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/271
Adding to China's water concerns, scientists are now reporting that the glaciers of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in western China are melting at an alarming rate. Analyzing four decades of data from nearly 700 weather stations, experts estimate the glaciers are shrinking seven percent each year due to global warming.

...The loss of China's glaciers will exacerbate already severe water shortages throughout the country. The Yangtze, Yellow, Brahmaputra, Mekong and Salween Rivers all originate from these glaciers, and then go on to feed nearly half a billion people downstream. The Yangtze River Basin alone accounts for 40 percent of China's freshwater resources and over half of all rice, grain and fisheries production.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,639224,00.html
Foreign Investors Snap Up African Farmland
By Horand Knaup and Juliane von Mittelstaedt July 30, 2009

http://www.holmgren.com.au/html/Writings/essence.html
Permaculture, a new way of growing more food